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Forecasting Colloquium - Klemens Rosin

Dr. Klemens Rosin

Methodologist at Statistik Stadt Zürich,
Lecturer for Data Science and Statistics

Population forecasts within the forecasting landscape
When Nov 05, 2019
from 11:15 AM to 12:30 PM
Where FRIAS, Albertstr. 19, Seminar room
Contact Name
Attendees universitätsoffen / open to university members
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Population forecasts within the forecasting landscape

 

The city of Zurich is by far the largest city in Switzerland; it has more than twice as many inhabitants as Geneva as the second largest city. Moreover, Zurich is growing rapidly: the population has increased by 19 percent since 2000. Will the growth continue? Standard population forecasts based on demographic processes have not been successful in the past. That is why we developed a model in which the demography modules for birth, death and migration are hierarchically integrated into the construction and planning models. Within this framework, the demographical processes are represented with Markov processes. The housing modules thus determine the upper limit of population growth.

Our population forecast model is integrated in a forecasting landscape: there are dependencies on the forecasts for school planning, health care, hospital bed planning, transport or spatial planning. The forecasting landscape of the city of Zurich displays dependencies and potential circular conclusions. In addition, the forecasting landscape is used for prioritizing parameter estimations in the population forecast model: those modules are improved for which the effects are particularly relevant in the entire forecasting landscape.