NatSci-Colloquium - Iris Stewart-Frey

What drives changes in aridity and drought over Central America?

Smallholder farmers across Central America (CA) have relied on rain-fed agricultural practices adapted to local precipitation patterns for food and water security. Although recent droughts in the region have been linked to severe crop failures, and threatened livelihoods, the magnitude, direction, and significance of any recent precipitation changes over Central America and their connection to longer-term changes in drought and aridity is not clear. We examine which of the global climatic data products available for CA are best to use for the study area in the absence of a comprehensive network of monitoring stations; what hydro-climatic shifts have occurred in the area over the past four decades; and whether and where globally observed warmer surface air temperatures have driven increases in drought and aridity in the region.