Forecasting Colloquium - Mathias Müller
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Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system
| When |
Dec 03, 2019
from 11:15 AM to 12:30 PM |
|---|---|
| Where | FRIAS, Albertstr. 19, Seminar room |
| Contact Name | Andrea Nordlander |
| Attendees |
universitätsoffen / open to university members |
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Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system
Could a butterfly trigger a Hurricane? In nonlinear coupled systems, initial conditions rule the world of forecasting. Yes it’s chaos, and it's worse than you think. Ensemble predictions are used to cope with the problem to a certain extent, but what can we really learn from ensembles and where are the limitations? Should you take half an umbrella if there is a 50% chance of rain? Is there a way to turn probabilistic forecasts into a tool for better decision making? Join on a journey through chaos, predictability, operational forecasting and only a few equations, i promise.
