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Forecasting Colloquium - Mathias Müller

PD Dr. Mathias Müller

Meteorology, climatology and remote sensing
University of Basel and meteoblue AG Basel

Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system
When Dec 03, 2019
from 11:15 AM to 12:30 PM
Where FRIAS, Albertstr. 19, Seminar room
Contact Name
Attendees universitätsoffen / open to university members
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Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system

 

Could a butterfly trigger a Hurricane? In nonlinear coupled systems, initial conditions rule the world of forecasting. Yes it’s chaos, and it's worse than you think. Ensemble predictions are used to cope with the problem to a certain extent, but what can we really learn from ensembles and where are the limitations? Should you take half an umbrella if there is a 50% chance of rain? Is there a way to turn probabilistic forecasts into a tool for better decision making? Join on a journey through chaos, predictability, operational forecasting and only a few equations, i promise.