Workshop - Environmental Forecasting

Environmental forecasts are the main tool through which our understanding of natural processes is transferred into practice in a human dominated world: weather forecasts, flood warnings, carbon balances of forests, landslides, recycling budgets are computed using environmental models along a range of complexity. Such environmental models comprise representations of the natural processes as well as human impacts, and include economic models, such as those simulating trade and environmental impacts at local to global scales.

Environmental disciplines have evolved strikingly divergent forecasting cultures, of different scientific credibility. The aim of the proposed Research Focus at the FRIAS is to understand forecasting cultures as reflecting distinct goals, distil a best practice from disciplinary experiences that makes environmental forecasts credible across environmental disciplines, and to formulate a research agenda for those areas where we can identify deficits without an existing solution.

The workshop will explore the mind sets behind forecasting practice in different fields within environmental science, and under which paradigms and attitudes the scientists operate.

The workshop will discuss in particular:

• scientific ideals of forecasting,
• constraints on meeting such ideals,
• normative elements in forecasts,
• conflicts between narratives and knowledge

Format

The workshop brings together a focused group of approximately 25 participants in a stimulating environment for an intensive and fruitful discussion leading to a publication with interdisciplinary appeal.

Aims and Scope

The workshop aims at (1) taking stock of the variety how forecasting is practiced in environmental science; (2) understanding why different forecasting cultures and traditions exist; and (3) exploring the consequences for scientific practice and credibility.

The workshop results will be disseminated as scientific publication.

Keynote Speakers

Nicole Augustine, Uni Bath (statistics)

Harald Bugmann, ETH Zürich (forest growth)

Mike Dietze, Uni Boston (ecological forecasting)

Florian Hartig, Uni Regensburg (theoretical ecology)

Klaus Keller, Penn State Uni (climate policy)

Martin Quaas, Uni Leipzig (ecological economics)

Thorsten Wagener, Bristol Uni (water management)

… plus several to be confirmed.

Program

Sunday, 6 October 2019

6:00 pm                  arrival and check-in
                               welcome reception

7:00 pm                  dinner

Monday, 7 October 2019

full day                   scientific program

Tuesday, 8 October 2019

full day                   scientific program
                               visit to a vineyard in nearby Kaiserstuhl

Wednesday, 9 October

full day                   scientific program

Thursday, 10 October

after breakfast       wrap-up and check-out

Hosts

The workshop is organized by FRIAS’ Research Focus En­vironmental Forecasting, coordinated by Prof. Dr. Carsten Dormann (Biometry and Environmental System Analysis), Prof. Dr. Kerstin Stahl (Environmental Hydrological Systems) and Prof. Dr. Stefan Baumgärtner (Environ­mental Economics and Resource Management).

Contact

Prof. Dr. Carsten Dormann
carsten.dormann@biom.uni-freiburg.de

Prof. Dr. Kerstin Stahl
kerstin.stahl@hydrology.uni-freiburg.de

Prof. Dr. Stefan Baumgärtner
stefan.baumgaertner@ere.uni-freiburg.de