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Forecasting Colloquium - Mathias Müller

PD Dr. Mathias Müller

Meteorologie, Klimatologie und Fernerkundung
Uni Basel und meteoblue AG Basel

Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system
Wann 03.12.2019
von 11:15 bis 12:30
Wo FRIAS, Albertstr. 19, Seminar room
Name
Teilnehmer universitätsoffen / open to university members
Termin übernehmen vCal
iCal

Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system

 

Could a butterfly trigger a Hurricane? In nonlinear coupled systems, initial conditions rule the world of forecasting. Yes it’s chaos, and it's worse than you think. Ensemble predictions are used to cope with the problem to a certain extent, but what can we really learn from ensembles and where are the limitations? Should you take half an umbrella if there is a 50% chance of rain? Is there a way to turn probabilistic forecasts into a tool for better decision making? Join on a journey through chaos, predictability, operational forecasting and only a few equations, i promise.