Document Actions

You are here: FRIAS Other Events Research Focus Forecasting Colloquium - Mathias …

Forecasting Colloquium - Mathias Müller

Error
There was an error while rendering the portlet.
Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system
When Dec 03, 2019
from 11:15 AM to 12:30 PM
Where FRIAS, Albertstr. 19, Seminar room
Contact Name
Attendees universitätsoffen / open to university members
Add event to calendar vCal
iCal

Predicting unpredictability - a slob’s view on a chaotic system

 

Could a butterfly trigger a Hurricane? In nonlinear coupled systems, initial conditions rule the world of forecasting. Yes it’s chaos, and it's worse than you think. Ensemble predictions are used to cope with the problem to a certain extent, but what can we really learn from ensembles and where are the limitations? Should you take half an umbrella if there is a 50% chance of rain? Is there a way to turn probabilistic forecasts into a tool for better decision making? Join on a journey through chaos, predictability, operational forecasting and only a few equations, i promise.